黄金是澳元的领先指标-澳元与黄金的相关性
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2010/1/4 17:11:21
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最近,众多媒体曝光了中信泰富以及国内某些大企业因澳元汇率剧烈波动引发外汇衍生合约的巨额亏损,“澳元门”事件一时广为人知!
最近,众多媒体曝光了中信泰富以及国内某些大企业因澳元汇率剧烈波动引发外汇衍生合约的巨额亏损,“澳元门”事件一时广为人知!
作为商品货币典型代表的澳大利亚元,与黄金趋势有一定的相关性。根据外媒Babypips的文章,外汇通进行了编译,希望能为广大澳元交易者、黄金交易者提供参考.
In today's lesson, we will be taking a look at commodities and how they relate to commodity currencies.
在今天的课程中,我们讨论商品,以及商品与商品货币的关系。
What is a commodity currency?
什么是商品货币?
In this trading universe we call the Forex, a commodity currency is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
在外汇交易大学中,我们把商品货币定义如下:在一个国家的出口业务中,如果原材料出口占据重要份额(贵金属、石油、农产品等),那么这个国家的货币就称为商品货币。
There are dozens of countries that fit this description, but the most actively traded currencies are the New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar. Because their currencies are all called dollars, they are also known as the commodity dollars or "Comdolls" for short.
上述定义对数十个国家都适合,但交易最活跃的货币却是新西兰元、澳大利亚元和加拿大元。由于这三种货币都以“元”为单位,这些商品货币也简称为“商品元”。
These three currencies are among the major currency pairs, which mean they have great liquidity and volatility for active trading.
这三种货币也是世界主要货币,是有着良好流动性和波动性的活跃币种。
How do commodities affect commodity currencies?
商品如何影响商品货币?
Raw materials compose such a large portion of these countries exports, a rise in commodity prices can possibly lead to a rise in the value of a country's currency, and vice versa.
原材料在这些国家的出口业务中占据了很大份额,所以商品价格的上升,可能导致这个国家的货币升值。反之亦然。
Let's take a look at Australian Dollor and see how much its movement correlates to certain commodities...
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Australian Dollar and Gold
澳大利亚元和黄金
Everyone loves gold - how can you not love it? It's metal, shiny and makes pretty cool jewelry. Besides that, gold is used in many, many applications like highly conductive wiring, reflective coating, and dentistry.
人人喜爱黄金——你有什么理由拒绝它呢?这种金属熠熠生辉,可以加工成精致的珠宝。并且它还有多种应用,例如作为高传导性金属、反光涂层使用,也可用于牙科康复。
In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most highly traded commodities. Okay, so how does all of this tie into Forex trading?
在金属世界中,黄金被誉为抵抗通货膨胀的“避风港”,是交易最为活跃的商品之一。但是,它是如何与外汇交易发生联系的呢?
For many traders out there, trading the Australian Dollar is just like trading gold. Australia is one of the world's largest producers of gold and it exports comprise over 50% of commodities, including precious metals.
对许多澳大利亚元的交易者而言,买卖澳大利亚元和黄金如出一辙。澳大利亚是世界最大的黄金生产国。在包括贵金属在内的商品出口中,黄金所占的份额超过了50%。
These commodities account for a large portion of Australia's Gross Domestic Product; so many traders watch the rise and fall of commodity prices, especially gold, which can influence the direction of the Australian Dollar. Let's take a look at a comparison chart of gold and the "Aussie:"
这些商品对澳大利亚的GDP影响甚大;许多交易者会关注商品价格,特别是黄金的涨跌,因为它们会影响澳大利亚元的走势。下面我们观察黄金和“澳大利亚元”的对比图(蓝色曲线为澳大利亚元,绿色曲线为黄金)。
This is a monthly chart that compares the price movement of gold and the AUD/USD all the way back to January 1980. As you can see, the two's movements were virtually the same, and from January 1980 to about January 2002 one can view gold as a leading indicator to AUD/USD.
这是黄金和澳大利亚元/美元的月线对比图,时间可以回溯到1980年1月。你可以看到,实际上,它们的价格波动很相似。从1980年1月到2002年1月,我们甚至可以把黄金看成是澳大利亚元/美元的领先指标。
The "red stars" above show major turning points in gold. These turning points seemed to occur before major turning points in AUD/USD. This relationship changed around 2002 as gold and AUD/USD movements were practically the same until gold shot up in value in 2005 to 2006.
图表上的“红星”显示了黄金的主要转折点,它们领先于澳大利亚元/美元的主要转折点。直到2002年左右,这种领先关系发生改变,黄金和澳大利亚元的走势变得几近雷同。直到2005-2006年间,随着黄金价格的飙升,这种关系才发生变化。
Traders can watch gold prices to get an extra edge in their analysis of AUD/USD as gold movements can give possible clues to where AUD/USD is headed. For those who can’t trade gold directly, AUD/USD’s strong correlation to gold makes a great substitution. You can trade AUD/USD in the spot Forex market as a proxy for gold, which is traded in the futures market.
在分析澳元时,交易者可以把黄金价格作为一个辅助参考,黄金的价格波动可以给澳大利亚元/美元的走势提供线索。如果不能直接交易黄金,凭借澳大利亚元/美元和黄金强烈的相关性,你可以选择澳大利亚元/美元作为出色的替代品种。你可以在现货外汇市场中买卖澳大利亚元/美元,替代在期货市场交易的黄金。
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